Since 1979, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) has published Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. This analysis projects the number of high school graduates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, making it an important resource for policymakers, decision-makers, researchers, and planners in education and workforce development for years to come.
As we approach the middle of the 21st century, the demographic landscape of U.S. high school graduates is undergoing significant transformation. This evolution presents both challenges and opportunities for higher education institutions, policymakers, and communities. The 11th edition of WICHE’s Knocking at the College Door provides critical insights into these trends, projecting high school graduate numbers through 2041 and offering actionable strategies for navigating the changing educational environment.
Key Findings and Trends
Peak and Decline in High School Graduates
The U.S. is on the verge of reaching a peak of 3.9 million high school graduates in 2025. However, this milestone will be followed by a steady decline, with the graduating class of 2041 projected to number just 3.4 million—a 13% decrease. This trend reflects long-term demographic shifts, primarily driven by declining birth rates since the Great Recession. These declines have already begun to ripple through the K-12 system, with many regions reporting smaller incoming cohorts.
Regional Variations
The trends in high school graduates vary significantly across regions, underscoring the importance of localized strategies. The South is expected to buck the national trend with moderate growth, driven by net migration and higher birth rates. This growth, however, is projected to stabilize after 2035. The West, Midwest, and Northeast will see marked declines, with California accounting for a disproportionate share of the national decrease. For instance, California is projected to experience a 29% decline in graduates by 2041. Smaller states like Idaho and North Dakota may experience modest growth, emphasizing the uneven distribution of demographic trends across the U.S.
Shifts in Racial and Ethnic Composition
One of the most significant findings in the report is the growing racial and ethnic diversity among high school graduates: Hispanic graduates are projected to increase from 27% of the total in 2023 to 36% by 2041. This growth underscores the importance of supporting Hispanic students through targeted programs and resources. Multiracial graduates are expected to nearly double by 2041, reflecting the broader diversification of the U.S. population. Conversely, White and Black graduate populations are projected to decline by 26% and 22%, respectively.
COVID-19’s Lingering Impact
While the graduating classes immediately following the pandemic showed numbers consistent with earlier projections, declines in early grade enrollments suggest potential challenges for future graduating cohorts. The pandemic exacerbated issues like learning loss and chronic absenteeism, particularly among marginalized communities. Addressing these challenges is critical to sustaining a robust education pipeline.
State-Level Insights
By 2041, 38 states are projected to experience declines in the number of graduates. Seven states are expected to see reductions exceeding 20%, including populous states like New York and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, states such as Texas, Florida, and Tennessee are likely to maintain or grow their graduate populations, highlighting the role of migration patterns and localized policies in shaping educational outcomes.
Strategic Recommendations for Higher Education
Expand Postsecondary Access
With an increasingly diverse graduate pool, higher education institutions must prioritize inclusivity. This includes: 1) Strengthening outreach and support for underrepresented groups, particularly Hispanic and Multiracial students. 2) Enhancing affordability through scholarships, grants, and cost-reduction initiatives.
Increase Retention and Completion Rates
Improving persistence and graduation rates is essential to counter demographic declines. Evidence-based strategies include: 1) Providing robust academic advising and mentoring programs. 2) Investing in mental health and well-being services. 3) Enhancing curriculum flexibility to accommodate nontraditional and part-time learners.
Attract Nontraditional Learners
To supplement declining traditional student populations, institutions must engage adult learners and those seeking alternative credentials. This could involve: 1) Developing short-term certificate programs aligned with industry needs. 2) Offering online and hybrid learning options to cater to working adults. 3) Partnering with employers to create pathways for workforce development.
Enhance K-12 Partnerships
Collaboration with K-12 schools is critical to addressing learning loss and ensuring a steady flow of college-ready students. Strategies include: 1) Joint initiatives to combat chronic absenteeism and improve academic outcomes. 2) Dual enrollment programs that allow high school students to earn college credit. 3) Early college readiness assessments to identify and support at-risk students.
Align with Workforce Demands
Labor market projections indicate a growing need for degree holders in healthcare, technology, education, and other sectors. Higher education must align its offerings with these needs by: 1) Updating curricula to reflect emerging skills and industries. 2) Expanding partnerships with businesses to offer internships and cooperative education opportunities.
A Final Comment
The projected demographic shifts present a clarion call for innovation and collaboration in higher education. While the decline in high school graduates poses challenges, it also offers an opportunity to reimagine how institutions serve a changing student population. By focusing on equity, inclusivity, and adaptability, higher education can ensure its relevance and impact in a rapidly evolving world.
The imperative is clear: now is the time to invest in strategies that not only address demographic realities but also empower students to succeed in an increasingly complex global economy. The choices made today will shape the educational landscape for decades to come, ensuring that every student has the opportunity to thrive and contribute to society.
